The spatio-temporal visualization tool HMMLVis in renewable energy applications

The spatio-temporal visualization tool HMMLVis in renewable energy applications

Abstract

Understanding causal relationships in multivariate time series is essential across many scientific domains, especially in climatology and meteorology where complex dependencies drive extreme events. Existing tools often lack intuitive visualization, particularly for heterogeneous Granger causality applied to non-Gaussian data such as time series following exponential distributions. There is a need for an accessible, interpretable tool that helps scientists explore temporal dependencies and uncover causal structure in such settings. We present HMMLVis, an original visualization tool designed for multivariate and heterogeneous Granger causal inference (Heterogeneous Granger causality by Minimum Message Length). The tool supports causal discovery in time series with exponential distributions and offers an intuitive interface for exploring temporal relationships. While HMMLVis is applicable across disciplines dealing with time-series data, this work focuses on its use in climatological and meteorological contexts. We demonstrate HMMLVis on several applications involving meteorological phenomena affecting the upper and lower distributional tails, using datasets from renewable energy (wind and PV), air pollution, and the European Meteorological Network (EUMETNET) post-processing benchmark (EUPPBench) across different temporal horizons. Our results show that HMMLVis successfully recovers known causal relationships and additionally reveals previously unobserved temporal dependencies relevant to the specific cases examined. As an interpretable and user-friendly visualization tool, HMMLVis has strong potential to support climatologists, meteorologists, and other researchers working with complex time-series data. By enabling clearer insight into causal interactions, it contributes to more informed scientific understanding and facilitates knowledge discovery across multiple environmental and atmospheric science applications.

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Authors
  • Wöß, Rainer
  • Hlavackova-Schindler, Katerina
  • Schicker, Irene
  • Papazek, Petrina
  • Plant, Claudia
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Shortfacts
Category
Journal Paper
Divisions
Data Mining and Machine Learning
Journal or Publication Title
Geoscientific Model Development
ISSN
1991-9603
Publisher
Copernicus Publications
Page Range
pp. 2385-2405
Number
6
Volume
19
Date
25 March 2026
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